Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 35.772979 40.419748 45.890644 52.935485 61.968995 73.473929 89.801273
2025-05-11 29.373776 35.020870 42.343940 52.969727 68.867155 93.604734 140.169322
2025-05-18 25.068829 30.949556 39.088144 51.967439 73.773339 114.562100 220.484581
2025-05-25 22.408887 28.429400 37.207450 52.161453 80.544000 144.991789 405.582643
2025-06-01 20.307049 26.283616 35.345439 51.705143 85.910293 179.581161 883.986442
2025-06-08 18.615038 24.465378 33.610039 50.911358 90.222360 219.494449 3131.476163
2025-06-15 17.272853 22.991385 32.161650 50.230731 94.535912 270.860370 NaN
2025-06-22 16.211576 21.823813 31.033269 49.874782 99.635301 344.962355 NaN
2025-06-29 15.168866 20.576779 29.591658 48.526058 101.319769 412.815813 NaN
2025-07-06 14.849866 20.459491 30.118224 51.565641 119.131624 785.351993 NaN
2025-07-13 14.114864 19.582729 29.136558 50.909108 123.792997 1140.782733 NaN
2025-07-20 13.582112 19.000178 28.634896 51.300015 133.317381 2269.620720 NaN
2025-07-27 13.113063 18.498187 28.247666 51.955637 145.459036 9326.494693 NaN
2025-08-03 12.635791 17.946268 27.702626 52.093170 155.891801 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 12.104987 17.264297 26.829346 51.161465 160.019529 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 11.721540 16.817735 26.390184 51.369277 172.000622 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 11.316930 16.307404 25.770619 50.932275 179.836758 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.918425 15.785150 25.081184 50.161248 184.916283 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 10.558753 15.314063 24.461917 49.498455 190.696608 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 10.248934 14.917735 23.970621 49.151622 199.461631 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 9.890230 14.414571 23.213133 47.835067 198.045846 NaN NaN
2025-09-28 9.851217 14.498428 23.736103 50.802043 248.011893 NaN NaN
2025-10-05 9.575414 14.125481 23.217978 50.161504 255.999768 NaN NaN